UFC 287 is headlined by one of the most anticipated title fights of all time and it looks like a good card for betting. Here are my MMA predictions for the main card.

Michelle Waterson vs. Luana Pinheiro

I’m not blown away by Luana Pinheiro’s footage. The Brazilian has a bit of power and some nice judo throws, but I don’t think her game is well-rounded.

Her striking is haphazard, she loses positions on the mat and tires out when she can’t find the early finish. Of course, she trains at an elite camp and could have improved during her layoff – but you have to draw your conclusions from what the tape tells you.

Michelle Waterson is getting up there in age, but is still training seriously and was doing well before getting choked out by Amanda Lemos last year.

I think Waterson will have success at kicking range and could time reactive takedowns as the Brazilian crashes the distance.

Pinheiro goes for a lot of head-and-arm throws, which could enable Waterson to take her back.

Ultimately, I think this will be a competitive fight and I see value on Michelle Waterson at +140.

Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

In 2018, Santiago Ponzinibbio was one of the scariest contenders in the welterweight division. Unfortunately, he hasn’t looked like the same guy since the injury layoff and could be close to retirement at 36-years-of-age.

His fight against Alex Morono was particularly alarming, where he was thoroughly outclassed before pulling a knockout out of thin air in the third round.

Stylistically, I don’t think this is an unwinnable fight for him. Ponzinibbio is capable of cutting off the octagon and blasting Kevin Holland with leg kicks and up-jabs to set up the rest of his offense.

I just think he’s a little too shop worn to pull it off.

Holland is untrustworthy, but is significantly faster and more athletic at this stage. He has the reach advantage, more diverse vocabulary of strikes as well as the submission upside if the fight hits the mat.

I just can’t bet a guy like Holland at a juiced price tag. There are rumors he is taking this fight with an injured right hand and we’ve seen him slow down when fights get extended.

If he becomes stationary and cannot maintain his range, things could get really interesting in the second half of this contest.

I’ll pick Kevin Holland to win, but I won’t be betting him at -260. 

Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez

I’m seeing a lot of love for Rob Font this week, and I understand why. The Massachusetts native has competed at the top of the bantamweight division for years and he never gets blown out of the water.

Font’s style is boxing-centric. He has a good variety of punches, one of the cleanest jabs in the UFC and he mixes up his combinations creatively.

He also has underrated grappling skills, which I expect him to lean on in this fight.

While there are plenty of compliments I can give him, he is getting up there in age for a bantamweight and has absorbed an insane amount of damage in his last few fights.

I dislike how his legs turn to jelly after getting caught flush and I think Adrian Yanez will be able to find/create openings in order to land on him.

Yanez is also primarily a boxer, but I think he will have an advantage in terms of counters and hand speed.

I’m not confident Font can jab Yanez into oblivion without getting slipped, cracked and wobbled at some point.

It’s true that Yanez has faced a much lower level of competition, but he has also accrued significantly less damage in his career.

I’d consider betting Adrian Yanez at pick ‘em odds, but I don’t think I’m getting a good deal at -180.

Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal

At first glance, I thought Jorge Masvidal was being disrespected and I was pretty sure I’d be betting him at +350.

After watching tape and seeing how his body looks during fight week, I’m far less enthusiastic.

Masival is capable of setting traps and knocking any welterweight unconscious, but I’m not convinced he can keep the fight standing for long enough to capitalize.

At 38-years-of-age, it looks like Masivdal has lost a step athletically and he has plenty of other ventures outside of fighting.

Gilbert Burns is a little reckless on the feet, but he packs a serious punch and his striking is good enough to set up his takedown entries.

While Burns is only a few years younger than his opponent, his best performances have come in his most recent fights and he has massively leveled up his wrestling to complement his ground game.

The Brazilian is a physical specimen who chains well off the single leg and has a nice variety of takedowns in his arsenal. He is also an aggressive guard passer, slick in transition and mixes his ground strikes with his grappling effectively.

If Burns can grab hold of one of Masvidal’s limbs without getting chinned, I think he’ll be able to get him to the mat.

Once horizontal, I don’t think the fight will be competitive.

I think there is value on Gilbert Burns to win inside the distance at +105 and by submission at +230.

Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya

The last fight gave some clarity over the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters.

Israel Adesanya has the faster hands, superior shot selection, better footwork and defense, whereas Alex Pereira has the power advantage and is more dangerous at boxing range as well as in the clinch.

Interestingly, Adesanya wasn’t as successful at keeping his opponent at the end of his punches as we’ve seen in the past – primarily because Pereira has the same height and reach as him.

Furthermore, Pereira’s gas tank didn’t fade down the stretch as many expected – despite the huge weight cut.

There is also the potential for Adesanya to switch things up and grapple more. This isn’t his natural style, but Pereira’s bottom game looks like a liability and I think the New Zealander could capitalize with the right preparations.

Ultimately, we can sit around and contemplate the minutiae of the previous encounter – but MMA at the elite level is a game of inches. Both fighters had opportunities to finish and with slightly different sequencing, we could’ve seen a completely different result.

I can’t predict the future, but it’s probable that Adesanya will win the aggregate of exchanges. I typically side with the fighter likely to win minutes over the fighter with terrifying knockout power and I’m not going to stop here.

It’s difficult to quantify all the variables at play in this rematch, but I believe Israel Adesanya is the value side at -135.