UFC 290 is a good card with plenty of entertaining scraps, but I’m struggling to find value on the betting lines. Nevertheless, here are my MMA predictions for the main card.

Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price

Robbie Lawler is one of my favorite fighters, and I’ll miss seeing him step inside the octagon. He always fought with raw aggression and conducted himself like a real man outside of the cage.

I wish him a happy retirement – he has been on a decline since 2017 and is making the right decision to walk away from the sport.

Retirement fights often go badly for aging athletes, but this is a winnable matchup for “Ruthless”.

Lawler is renowned for taking the front foot, banging it out in the pocket and relying on his toughness to emerge victorious. He does an excellent job of mixing up his offense to the body and head, which should come in handy against an opponent that will oblige him with a fire fight at close range.

I’ve been critical of Niko Price throughout his career. He is not the most technical fighter (by UFC standards), but has prevailed in numerous bouts due to his Earth-shattering power.

Price is capable of fighting in a composed manner, but when the punches start flying – he immediately forgets about defense! Lawler still slips and blocks shots with reasonable success, whereas Price often throws huge haymakers while leaving himself vulnerable to the counter.

Price is only a heavy favorite due to age and mileage, this is not an easy fight for him stylistically.

I don’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Robbie Lawler north of +200, although I’m not sure if I can stomach it myself.

Dan Hooker vs. Jalin Turner

As the odds indicate, this is a difficult fight for Dan Hooker.

The New Zealander is a skilled striker who attacks the legs, body and head with ferocity. He also has an underrated grappling game, which he doesn’t always utilize.

However, Hooker has some glaring weaknesses that Jalin Turner should be able to take advantage of.

Hooker’s defense is reliant on distance control and for once, he won’t be the taller and longer combatant. He also tends to brawl when things aren’t going his way and will be at a deficit in terms of speed, power and precision.

Turner strikes well at distance and has the much cleaner boxing. The American is also the superior athlete.

For Hooker to emerge victorious, he needs to work low kicks, body shots and mix in wresting to drag the fight into deep waters – but I think he’ll have a tough time doing that without absorbing heavy damage on the feet.

There may have been value on Jalin Turner around the -180 mark, but I’m uninterested in his current price of -275. I don’t mind Turner’s KO line at +225.

Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Dricus Du Plessis encountered massive adversity in all of his UFC fights, but prevailed using pure determination and grit. Resilience is a great attribute for a fighter, but you’re unlikely to win a championship without an elite skill set.

There is nothing bad about Du Plessis’ game, but I believe he is outmatched in all areas.

Robert Whittaker’s footwork, blitz attacks, well-disguised kicks and efficient jab should be troublesome for the South African.

Furthermore, I don’t think Du Plessis can wrestle his way out of danger when things get rough on the feet like he did against Darren Till. Whittaker is difficult to take down and could score takedowns of his own.

Aside from landing a big knockout punch, I think Du Plessis is in for a rough night against one of the best middleweights in UFC history.

Robert Whittaker is priced as a heavy favorite and I believe it’s justified.

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

Alexandre Pantoja is a popular underdog bet this week, but I’m personally not on the bandwagon.

The Brazilian is one of the best back takers in the sport and the rest of his game is set up for him to ascertain the body triangle. He is great at overwhelming adversaries on the feet, executing the crab ride back take and sinking in the rear-naked choke.

However, his wrestling is not the best and neither is his striking defense. He also tends to slow down, which is a horrible deficiency to have in a five-rounder against a cardio machine like Brandon Moreno.

It’s possible that Pantoja secures a submission in the first two rounds, but Moreno is a legitimate black belt and dogged scrambler – so I don’t think it’s probable.

Moreno is the more efficient boxer and in a high-paced fight, I expect this advantage to become pronounced as we head into the later rounds.

I think there was value on Brandon Moreno at -160, but I would pass at -210. This could be a great live betting spot.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

Alexander Volkanovski is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters currently active, but Yair Rodriguez presents some interesting challenges for him.

Volkanovski’s footwork, timing and counters are some of his best attributes. He was able to completely nullify Max Holloway (who does his best work in boxing range), but could have a tougher time against a dynamic striker who will chip away with kicks from the outside

The Mexican fires vicious kicks to the body and makes good use of his elbows and knees as well.

Rodriguez throws nice piercing straight punches, but he is not a competent boxer in exchanges and can be whacked in the pocket. Volkanovski may struggle at range, but he is adept at shifting through stances to cover distance and clobber taller opponents.

If you told me the fight would take place on the feet, I’d have no problem taking a shot on Rodriguez at +300, but I doubt that will be the case.

Volkanovski has superb fight IQ and is the far more complete MMA grappler. The Australian should be able to hit takedowns and dominate from top position.

Rodriguez may throw up submission attempts from his back, but I give him a slim chance of pulling that off.

I don’t see any value on Alexander Volkanovski at -400, but -110 for the fight not going the distance is a lot more interesting.