Check out my MMA picks for the main card of UFC 285, headlined by Jon Jones and Cyril Gane in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett

I understand that Bo Nickal is a green prospect and the UFC wants to build him up slowly, but this fight is pointless.

Nickal comes from an elite wrestling background and is developing the rest of his game at American Top Team. He regularly competes in grappling competitions and will tenaciously hunt for the submission as soon as the fight hits the mat.

It shouldn’t take him long to bulldoze through Jamie Pickett, who has looked thoroughly underwhelming during his UFC tenure. Pickett might be the more technical striker, but he hates being hit and I doubt he can keep the fight vertical for long.

Pickett has some quit in him and I think Nickal will bring it out quickly.

I’d take Bo Nickal to win by submission at -155 if you’re desperate for action, but I’ll personally be avoiding this sham of a fight.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner

Jalin Turner is a huge lightweight with plenty of offensive firepower. He attacks with all eight limbs, throws heavy combinations and is precise when countering in the pocket.

I particularly like his knee strikes, which he’ll be searching for against a much shorter opponent in Mateusz Gamrot.

Despite presenting a massive threat early in the fight, Turner struggles to defend takedowns and slows down when fights get extended.

Gamrot is the more basic striker of the two, but he only needs Turner to plant his feet and start swinging in order to time one of his superb level changes.

The Pole is one of the most complete grapplers in the division and he should be able to dominate his adversary from pillar to post if he can get his hands on him.

Furthermore, Gamrot is a cardio machine and I can see Turner heading for the exit when he’s forced to embrace the grind in the second and third rounds.

I’m unsure whether there is any value on Mateusz Gamrot at -225, but he should win convincingly.

Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Shavkat Rakhmonov is getting a step up in competition after blasting through all four of his UFC opponents.

The Kazakh comes from a sambo background and brings a well-rounded skill set into the octagon. His pure boxing is unremarkable, but he manages distance well and throws vicious knees and kicks.

Rakhmonov has excellent takedowns from the clinch and is a terrifying grappler from top position.

He’s an exciting prospect, but the books have him priced at 83% implied – which is ridiculous.

Fighting from the southpaw stance, Geoff Neal is a plus athlete with solid striking fundamentals. He fires his left cross like a piston and his hands immediately retract to keep his chin protected.

Neal has strong hips and a good sprawl, although I’m not sure how he’ll deal with the upper body takedowns of Rakhmonov.

I also don’t have a clear read of what Neal is like on bottom position. He might be able to scramble his way to safety or he could be in severe danger of being finished – I just don’t know.

I’m confident that if the fight takes place on the feet, Neal has a much better chance of winning than the odds indicate.

There is missing information with both fighters, but Geoff Neal has to be the value side at +400.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso

This looks like a stylistically favorable fight for the reigning champion.

Alexa Grasso has crisp boxing for a female flyweight, but Valentina Shevchenko is brilliant at manipulating distance and landing counters off the back foot.

Shevchenko’s left kicks to the body and head are her most dangerous strikes and she will look for reactive level changes when opponents get too aggressive.

Grasso has improved her grappling in recent years and shown an ability to scramble out of bad spots, but Shevchenko is heavy on top and can probably ride out rounds to claim the victory.

Valentina Shevchenko is the rightful favorite, but there is no value on her -600 moneyline.

Jon Jones vs. Cyril Gane

Jon Jones wants to cement himself as the greatest fighter of all time, hence why he bulked up to fight for the heavyweight belt

I’m dubious whether this is the right weight class for him.

He has added plenty of mass to his body, but his frame looks more suitable for a light heavyweight athlete.

I’d be impressed if he retains the same speed, agility and cardio with his new physique.

At his best, Jones was known as a dynamic Muay Thai striker with some of the nastiest elbows, knees and kicks in the game. We haven’t seen that version of Jones for a while and he ate a bunch of shots while marching forward trying to pressure both Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes.

I believe Jones will struggle with the footwork, low kicks and technical boxing of Cyril Gane – but can he get the fight to the mat?

We saw Gane concede takedowns and make tactical mistakes against Francis Ngannou – but he was obviously unprepared for a grappling attack that night.

I think he’ll be better equipped this weekend, although we still don’t have a complete read of his defensive wrestling. Jones will dive in on legs as well as hit takedowns from the clinch, so Gane must be prepared for defense in all areas.

Aside from the rematch with Alex Gustafsson, Jones’ wrestling has not been effective in the later stages of his career.

If Cyril Gane can’t deal with the grappling onslaught then so be it, but I’m happy to take a gamble on him at +140.