Check out my Bellator predictions for an interesting fight card in Dublin, Ireland. The main card has some interesting stylistic clashes and here are breakdowns from a betting perspective.
Ciaran Clarke vs. Leonardo Sinis
Fighting out of SBG Ireland, Ciaran Clarke does his best work from top position and is absolutely tenacious in getting the fight to the mat.
At 27-years-of-age, his striking is still extremely raw and he has zero defensive awareness. The Irishman is fortunate to possess a strong chin, because he’ll often absorb heavy damage in order to hit a takedown and muscle opponents to the mat.
Despite an impressive winning streak, there are shaky moments in most of Clarke’s fights and he came perilously close to losing as a -850 favorite in his last bout against Rafael Hudson.
I believe Clarke will lose sooner rather than later as a favorite, but I don’t think this is the right spot to fade him.
Taking this fight on short notice, Leonardo Sinis looks outmatched. The Greek athlete will fight tooth and nail for victory, but his game is a mess.
He throws strikes with vicious intent and is a serviceable grappler when he’s the one in a dominant position, but he gets taken down too easily.
Sinis can scramble out of bad positions and reverse lesser opponents, but I think he’s in major trouble if he ends up beneath Clarke at any point in this fight.
Ciaran Clarke should notch up another victory, but he has way too many holes in his game to bet him at -400.
Sinead Kavanagh vs. Janay Harding
In a rematch of a 2018 contest, it’s difficult to assess where both women are at in their careers.
Sinead Kavanagh is the more complete mixed martial artist, but she’s now 37-years-of-age and is coming off a brutal ACL injury that she sustained in her last fight.
A decorated amateur boxer, Kavanagh throws well in combination and has fast, accurate punches. The Irish athlete possesses as black belt in BJJ and should have a major advantage if the fight hits the mat, but I suspect this will play out on the feet.
Janay Harding is a big, physical featherweight who attacks with all eight limbs – but she is defensively vulnerable to head strikes and particularly open to counters.
Her face was a magnet for punches against Dayana Silva and that doesn’t bode well for her against a slick boxer like Kavanagh.
That said, the New Zealander is difficult to take down and has a diverse Muay Thai arsenal. If we see fifteen minutes of kickboxing, I think she will look better than her +205 price tag indicates.
She is also entering her athletic prime at 28-years-of-age, so improvements from camp to camp are entirely possible.
I just have a hard time trusting her. She was dominating Leah McCourt from pillar to post before getting submitted and those kinds of critical mistakes make her difficult to back with your cash.
Sinead Kavanagh is the rightful favorite, but I can’t comprehend betting her at -250. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking a shot on the underdog.
Peter Queally vs. Bryce Logan
Bryce Logan is a fighter desperately in need of a win. There is no shame in losing to opponents like Georgi Karakhanyan, Mike Hamel and Mandel Nallo – but I feel he could’ve done much better in those contests.
Anyone can get knocked out by a sniper like Nallo, but I didn’t like how Logan conceded so much control time against Karakhanyan and Hamel.
Fortunately, he will be facing another striker in Peter Queally – which should allow him to perform to the best of his abilities.
Logan picks his shots well, fights effectively from both stances and rips the body to good effect. I feel like these attributes will serve him well against Queally, who marches forward with the high guard and throws aggressively.
Queally just turned 38-years-of-age and looked ragged in his last two fights (albeit against good competition). It’s possible that his front foot approach earns him the victory, but he is becoming more hittable with every fight and could be on the doorstep of retirement.
I like Bryce Logan to come through as the +135 underdog, I’d cap him as a slight favorite.
Pedro Carvalho vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Pedro Carvalho is an athlete with some good aspects to his game as well as some obvious flaws.
The Portuguese fighter is tenacious, gritty and will throw a high output of strikes. It looks as if he has been focussing on his BJJ, since he was able to scramble out of bad positions and rack up control time against a legitimate grappler in Mads Burnell – much to my surprise!
He’ll have a much harder time relying on willpower and scrambles to get the better of Jeremy Kennedy. I believe he’ll have to hurt the Canadian on the feet if he wants to get his hand raised.
Kennedy has a functional striking game to keep him safe in open space, but his main aim is to get his hands on opponents and chain-wrestle them to the mat. His wrestling against the fence is top notch and he’ll stick to opponents like a bad rash in order to rack up control time and land strikes from top position.
We saw him control Emmanuel Sanchez and Aaron Pico (both of whom are better grapplers than Carvalho) and this feels like a good fight for him stylistically.
The biggest concern I have with Kennedy is that he sometimes waits too long before he starts grappling and incurs too much damage on the feet. Hopefully he has learned his lesson, because this is a good opportunity for him to move closer to a title shot.
I think there is value on Jeremy Kennedy at -170, I’d set the price a bit wider than that.
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Logan Storley
If you enjoy watching slick scrambles between two elite grapplers, I’d encourage you to check out the original contest between Yaroslav Amosov and Logan Storley.
Both men are known for taking opponents down and controlling from top position, yet neither man could establish a dominant position for long when they fought in 2020.
Before the first fight, I would’ve said Amosov had the cardio and striking advantage – but now I’m not so sure.
We’ve seen Storley go five rounds with no issues and his boxing looked vastly improved against Neiman Gracie. Amosov has the more varied offense, but I don’t think there is a big skill discrepancy on the feet.
I’m expecting a closely fought battle and I can see this going either way. Logan Storley to win by decision is the line that stands out to me at +240.