UFC 253 is an excellent fight card with lots of entertaining match-ups. Here are my main card MMA predictions from a betting perspective.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

I’m not sure how high Hakeem Dawodu’s ceiling is in the UFC. The Canadian is a smooth kickboxer with good low kicks, front kicks and counters – but his striking defense leaves much to be desired.

I also have questions about his chin. He got annihilated by a lower tier featherweight in Danny Henry and even got rocked by Steven Siler (a pure grappler) in a 2017 fight for WSOF.

His takedown defense seems good, although not flawless. He will dig for underhooks and create a wide base, but a good wrestler like Zubaira Tukhugov can probably get him down.

Still, Dawodu has a solid get up game and Tukhugov’s top control isn’t the best.

I feel that Tukhugov is the less athletic fighter, but he could come out and starch his adversary in round one (as he did in his last fight). Tukhugov’s boxing is improving and he will have opportunities to land flush shots to the chin.

Tukhugov has a tendency to fade and I could see him absorbing a lot of kicks while failing to close the distance in the second and third round.

I slightly favor Hakeem Dawodu in this match-up, although I’d need a better price than +105 to consider betting him.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks

Not many people thought Sijara Eubanks would emerge victorious against Julia Avila, but she proved the doubters wrong. With well-timed takedowns in the second and third rounds, Eubanks was able to implement her suffocating top game and take a decision victory.

While Eubanks has made strides with her boxing under Mark Henry, she’s not a KO threat.

It’s not inconceivable that she could box and sprawl her way to victory, but this seems like a rough stylistic match-up for her.

Ketlen Vieira is one of the most complete grapplers in women’s MMA. She comes from an extensive wrestling background and holds black belts in both judo and BJJ.

Like most fighters from Nova Uniao, Vieira has excellent takedown defense. Furthermore, Vieira is a big bantamweight and Eubanks is a former flyweight who has a relatively small weight cut.

Physicality matters a hell of a lot in wrestling exchanges and I think Vieira is far more likely to score takedowns than Eubanks.

Don’t sleep on Vieira’s boxing either. Even though she got knocked out by Irene Aldana, she was looking good up until that point and had clearly been developing her game since her fight with Cat Zingano.

I see Vieira keeping the striking close and cementing rounds with takedowns and top time. The Brazilian has a wide variety of takedowns in her arsenal and is particularly effective with trips from the clinch.

I feel pretty confident that Ketlen Vieira walks away victorious.

Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval

At first glance, this looks like a great match-up for Kai Kara-France.

The New Zealander is a technical kickboxer with excellent footwork and a wide variety of strikes in his arsenal. His shot selection is brilliant and I particularly like how he fakes the jab to set up the right cross.

He will be at a height and reach disadvantage, but I don’t think that will be significant given how the styles intertwine.

Kara-France has a fast sprawl and good takedown defense. You can bet his game plan will be to keep the fight standing and neutralize the grappling onslaught of Brandon Royval.

There isn’t much structure to Royval’s striking, although he can be effective against a certain level of opponent on the feet. Unless he’s made significant strides since quitting his day job and training full time, I think he’s going to struggle badly with the speed and footwork of his opponent.

Royval has mentioned in interviews that he plans to overwhelm Kara-France. I guess this means he will do anything within his power to create chaos so that he can opportunistically snatch up an arm or a neck.

The American fighter lacks ability to get this fight to the mat using conventional takedowns, but I’m sure he has a few tricks up his sleeve in order to utilize his BJJ advantage. I expect to see him pull guard, attempt standing back takes and fish for front chokes whenever the two fighters are tied up.

Kara-France doesn’t have cardio problems, but he’s definitely strongest in the first round. If the fight goes late, I could see Royval turn up the pressure.

It’s easy to see why Kai Kara-France is favored, but I think there are going to be some sketchy moments for him in this fight.

Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz

I feel bad for Dominick Reyes (and anyone that bet him at +300), because he was robbed by the judges in his last championship bout against Jon Jones. I scored the fight 48-47 for Reyes and didn’t think it was a difficult fight to score.

Nevertheless, he looked excellent in the first three rounds of that contest and landed numerous flush shots with his power left hand.

With good footwork, fluid combinations and sharp counters, Reyes is a problem for anyone at light heavyweight.

The main issue for Reyes is that he’s a front runner. I expect him to come out hot in the early rounds, but he’s likely to fade if he can’t get a finish.

Jan Blachowitz is more flat-footed, less fluid and older than Reyes, but I’m more confident in him keeping a consistent pace for five rounds.

The Polish fighter is good at capitalizing on defensive openings. He throttled Luke Rockhold with a beautiful check hook and countered a low kick of Corey Andrerson to send him crashing to the canvas.

If he can avoid getting starched in the first round, I think Jan Blachowicz is a live underdog at +230. That said, the line that stands out to me is over 2.5 rounds at -125.

Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa

With a short reach and thunderous power, Paulo Costa’s striking style is dictated by his physical attributes.

Cutting off the cage is imperative for the Brazilian, because he doesn’t want to get stuck at distance where he will get picked apart by straight punches and counters.

I expect Costa to come forward with reckless abandon, throwing kicks to the body and attempting to pin his foe against the fence – where he will unload with ferocious hooks.

All but one of Costa’s career victories have come inside the distance, and he slowed down and lost the third round in his only decision victory against Yoel Romero. Given his huge weight cut and power-reliant style, this suggests he will need to finish the fight within the first two rounds.

He’s been successful at cutting off the octagon in his career thus far, but he’s never faced an opponent with elite footwork.

In a recent breakdown video, Jack Slack came up with a theory that I hadn’t considered. Henry Cejudo (who shares the same manager as Costa) invested in low kicks to diminish the movement of an elusive opponent in Dominick Cruz.

This approach could also be effective for Costa – although we haven’t seen any evidence of it in the past.

Israel Adesanya is proficient at fighting from both stances, but I suspect he may prefer the orthodox stance in order to establish the jab and avoid the devastating right body kick from his opponent.

Against Uriah Hall, Costa was getting lit up by the jab. However, Hall was not light on his feet and refused to follow up the jab with power shots, which enabled “The Eraser” to walk him down and finish him.

It’s hard to believe Adesanya will make the same mistake.

We know that Adesanya can go hard for five rounds and isn’t afraid to dig deep. After a rough fourth round against Kelvin Gastelum, you can see him mouth the words: “I’m prepared to die”.

I believe we’re going to see a footwork and counter-striking clinic by Israel Adesanya and I see some value on his -170 moneyline.

My Main Plays

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