I’m coming off a profitable weekend and I’m looking to keep momentum rolling. UFC 276 is a stacked card and I think there are several good betting spots.
Here are my main card MMA predictions.
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz
Sean O’Malley is unbearable to look at or listen to, but I think he has a bright future in the bantamweight division.
Standing 5’11 with a 72-inch reach, he uses his frame to full effect and has developed into a fantastic out-fighter. His speed, footwork and ability to walk opponents onto shots that they didn’t see coming makes him a feared combatant in the division.
Dana White must love his flashy fighting style and flamboyant personality, because O’Malley has been given a string of favorable opponents in a row – including this one.
Pedro Munhoz is a pleasure to watch, but his arsenal is limited. He has good boxing in the pocket, a lethal guillotine and a world class calf kick, but he struggles with opponents that are faster and more dynamic than him.
Fortunately for Munhoz, he has one of the best chins in MMA – which allows him to keep moving forward while eating clean shots. However, I think he’s going to struggle badly with the footspeed and length of the much younger O’Malley.
Munhoz has a path to victory if he can compromise the lead leg of O’Malley, but I don’t think it’s probable.
I’m picking Sean O’Malley to win by decision, but I don’t expect the rounds to be close.
Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena
Unlike some of the clownish fighters of the modern era, Robbie Lawler isn’t a theatrical extroverted douche with a loud mouth. “Ruthless” keeps things stoic and violent, like a real man.
He has lost a step athletically at 40-years-of-age, but he strikes me as the kind of guy who doesn’t cut corners with his training and his performance against Nick Diaz was his best in years.
Some might denigrate this win by saying Diaz is a washed up fighter, but I think you can make inferences about how a similar approach would work against Bryan Barberena this weekend.
With heavy pressure, Lawler moved forward and mixed up his shot selection excellently to the body and head – eventually leading to a TKO finish.
Historically, fighters have had success against Lawler by fighting long or with a grappling approach – but I don’t think Barberena can do either.
Known for standing toe to toe with opponents and slugging it out, “Bam Bam” has a ludicrous amount of mileage on his body and has suffered even more damage outside of the octagon.
At 33-years-of-age, Barberena is looking noticeably more stiff and labored in recent fights.
Barberena has good elbows in the clinch and may find success with low kicks against another southpaw, but I think Lawler’s relentless pressure should turn this into a brawl in the pocket.
I think the shot selection, countering ability and concussive power of Lawler are way better than Barberena at close range.
This is a volatile fight to bet on since both athletes have seen better days, but I think you can get to 60% implied odds for Robbie Lawler.
Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira
Stylistically, this is the most interesting bout on the card.
Alex Pereira was regarded as one of the scariest kickboxers of his time, and his style has translated well to MMA.
The Brazilian stands 6’4 and has an incredible 80-inch reach for a middleweight. He has superb hands for a kickboxer and mixes up his shots brilliantly to the legs, body and head.
He also hits extremely hard, particularly in 4oz gloves.
He leaves his chin high, but his durability is unquestionable. His output isn’t great either, although he can easily rock or KO an opponent with a single shot whenever the fight is in open space.
Training with Glover Teixiera, his defensive grappling looks good. He is difficult to take down and will push down on the opponent’s head, post up and scramble to his feet when he does end up on the mat.
He can be pinned against the fence and I’ve seen him give up his back while standing up, which could be risky here.
Sean Strickland is far more basic as a striker. He builds his offense around the jab, but his head remains on center and he is open to counters as well as leg kicks.
From the glimpses I’ve seen in fights, my assumption is that “Tarzan” is a good grappler. Outside of a back take and body triangle, I don’t think he’ll be able to hold Pereira down though.
While Strickland is a meathead, his head coach is the opposite. John Wood is one of the most underrated strategists in MMA and he’ll be planning to win rounds against a pure striker with a more complete skill set.
I expect Strickland to try and duck underneath the right hand of Pereira and try to drive him into the fence. The same goes for when the Brazilian throws any flying or spinning attacks.
However, Pereira seems very physically strong and I think he’ll have success with body shots (that you can’t duck underneath) as well as low kicks.
In open space, I don’t think a jab-centric boxer like Strickland is going to cause big problems for a former Glory champion.
I think the value is with Alex Pereira at -110.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
I’ve been going back and forth with this fight. I’m unsure whether we’ll see a close and competitive encounter like the second fight or a blowout victory in favor of Alexander Volkanovski.
I think it depends on which version of Max Holloway shows up.
After putting on the performance of his career against Calvin Kattar, Max Holloway looked extremely flat and hittable against Yair Rodriguez. The Hawaiian has been at featherweight for his entire career and I wonder if it might be time to move up?
Holloway is a volume fighter and often neglects defense in order to get into an offensive rhythm.
This works brilliantly against a punching bag like Brian Ortega, but Volkanovksi proved he has the ability to slip, counter and disrupt Holloway from getting into a groove.
Volkanovski has developed into a brilliant striker over the last few years and he may have the answers to whatever Holloway throws at him.
Still, a fight is a fight and I wouldn’t count out Holloway’s ability to change and adapt either.
I’ll Pick Alexander Volkanovsi to win, but I wouldn’t bet him at -200. I don’t blame anyone for taking a speculative shot on Max Holloway to win by decision at +300.
Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier is a savage, but his game is fairly basic. He has some heat on his right hand as well as devastating low kicks, but that’s nothing the reigning champion can’t deal with.
Israel Adesanya has good low kick defense and is the much more layered striker. His ability to move laterally, feint and give different looks should completely overload the brain of Cannonier.
Even if Cannonier decides to abandon his usual style and take the front foot relentlessly, we’ve seen Adesanya deal with that too.
The champion is brilliant at slipping and returning in the pocket and it’s difficult to hit him cleanly on the chin.
I also think Adesanya can deal with a wrestling attack just fine, if that is part of the game plan.
I don’t think this will be an exciting fight, but Israel Adesanya should be able to shut down another contender and possibly finish him in the later rounds.