UFC 284 is a great card from an entertainment perspective, but I dislike it for betting. I don’t think there is much value on the current lines and I only have one bet for the event thus far.
Nevertheless, I’ve watched a lot of footage and I’m happy to bring you my main card MMA predictions for UFC 284.
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
In terms of technical ability, Alonzo Menifield is not a fighter I rate highly. He hits extraordinarily hard, but there isn’t much process to his striking and his punches are hilariously telegraphed.
Menifield has strong hips and stellar takedown defense, but he doesn’t manage his energy well and is often gasping for air when he can’t find the early finish.
We saw Menifield invest heavily into low kicks against Ed Herman – and I think that would be a good idea here.
Despite his shortcomings, big power and good takedown defense might be enough for him to win this particular fight.
Jimmy Crute is the superior grappler by several orders of magnitude, but that won’t count for anything if he can’t secure top position.
On the feet, the Australian is the more skillful boxer – but his defensive stiffness and lack of speed could get him hurt badly.
Furthermore, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Menifield looks for takedowns of his own. We saw him take a wrestling approach last year against Askar Mozharov – but with Pat Barry as his head coach for this fight, he’ll probably just stand and bang like an meathead.
I’ll pick Jimmy Crute to win, but I’d need a considerably better price than -200 in order to bet him.
Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter
Predominantly a kickboxer, Justin Tafa fights from the southpaw stance and has a stiff right hook, explosive counters as well as heavy kicks from both the lead and power leg.
His workrate could be better, but he is a formidable adversary for most heavyweights in a striking battle.
Interestingly, Tafa has only fought other strikers in his UFC career (aside from Juan Adams, who decided to stand with him anyway).
His pre-UFC footage showcases a lack of grappling acumen, and this is a clear area for Parker Porter to exploit.
Porter is slow and unathletic, but functional in all aspects of MMA and takes a persistent approach inside the octagon.
We might see the American knocked unconscious, but I think he has a good chance of taking Tafa down if he can get his hands on him.
Porter is built like a refrigerator and chains takedowns effectively in the clinch. I think he can rack up plenty of top time by laying in half guard, landing peppering shots and smothering Tafa with his breasticles.
This is a risky fight to bet on, but I believe Parker Porter is the value side at +105.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown
Jack Della Maddalena has taken the UFC by storm, finishing all three of his opponents by first round TKO.
The young Australian does his best work at mid-range, as he shifts stances and rips thunderous combinations to the body and head. His style is extremely fan-friendly and it’s easy to see why Dana White is fast tracking him in the welterweight division.
Maddalena is hittable and I don’t have a full read on his grappling or cardio, but I expect him to make improvements from fight to fight and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw him in the title picture within the next few years.
On paper, Randy Brown poses some stylistic problems.
Not only does “Rude Boy” have significant reach advantage, his entire game is based around keeping more compact opponents at the end of his strikes.
The Jamaican-American has a piercing jab, exits properly after throwing and is adept at chipping away with kicks from the outside. An intercepting knee could also catch the shorter Australian as he closes the distance.
I don’t think grappling will be a major part of this fight, but Brown may latch onto a front choke if the opportunity emerges.
While Brown’s path to victory seems feasible, he’s a hard guy to trust. His vulnerability to leg kicks, poor fight IQ and general fragility make him difficult to bet.
I played him as a heavy favorite against Francisco Trinaldo and that fight was way closer than it should’ve been!
With a ticket on Brown, you’ll be holding your breath every time Maddalena enters punching range.
I understand why Jack Della Maddalena is the favorite, but -330 seems wide to me. I believe there is value on under 2.5 rounds at -150.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett
Coming from a background in taekwondo, Yair Rodriguez is one of the most dynamic kickers in the UFC.
In recent fights, we’ve seen an improvement in his offensive boxing – which complements his kicking game. However, he still leaves his chin sky high and is liable to get cracked at any moment by a huge puncher in Josh “Dark Lord Nosferatu” Emmett.
Unlike his opponent, there isn’t a lot of variety to Emmett’s offense and he doesn’t maintain a high workrate.
However, he has good inside boxing and a nuclear missile for a right hand. One correctly placed punch from Emmett can turn a round upside down or end the fight completely.
Interestingly, Emmett comes from a wrestling background but prefers to strike. We’ve seen Rodriguez fish for submissions off his back, but I don’t think he’s particularly dangerous there.
I’m sure Emmett has watched Frankie Edgar demolish Rodriguez from top position and this could be a viable path to victory for him.
Ultimately, I think Rodriguez will win minutes fairly easily – but his lack of boxing defense makes him unplayable at -190.
I would take Josh Emmett at +160 if I was forced to place a bet, but his age, lack of volume and rumors of lingering injuries make this fight a pass for me.
Islam Makhachev vs. Alex Volkanovski
I made a fat stack of cash betting Islam Makhachev against Charles Oliveira, yet his price is significantly worse against an opponent who presents more stylistic issues.
Makhachev is an underrated counter-striker with heavy left kicks and rapidly improving boxing, although he won’t want to keep the fight standing.
The Dagestani has some of the best clinch takedowns in the UFC and is also a phenomenal positional grappler.
It’s difficult to find windows of opportunity to beat him, unless you can simply catch him cold like Adriano Martins did.
Alex Volkanovski is a world class talent himself and has huge balls for stepping up in weight for this challenge.
Over the last few years, Volkanovski has evolved his striking game tremendously. He used to be a crude power puncher, yet now has excellent timing, footwork and counters.
Even with the size disadvantage, I think he can get the better of Makhachev on the feet – I’m just not convinced he can stop the takedown.
Volkanovski is proficient in scrambles and he showcased incredible submission defense against an opportunistic grappler in Brian Ortega, yet Makhachev’s approach is far more methodical.
The Australian might be able to scramble his way out of danger and get back to his feet for the first few rounds, but eventually I believe he’ll get exhausted
One thing I know from years of gambling experience is that when the superior wrestler also has a size advantage, it’s usually the recipe for a beatdown.
I don’t see value on Islam Makhachev at -400, but his late round submission props might be worth a look.