UFC 288 is one of the best cards of the year and there are plenty of interesting betting spots.
Check out my MMA predictions for the main card.
Matt Frevola vs. Drew Dober
Matt Frevola has a tendency to brawl when he doesn’t need to. This has led to numerous knockout losses, although he was on the right side of a devastating finish in his last bout against Ottman Azaitar.
In this contest, he would be wise to blend his wrestling with his boxing.
He should be able to land flush on the chin of Drew Dober, but I doubt he’ll be able to knock out one of the most durable fighters on the roster.
Some well-timed level changes will be useful in order to take Dober down and rack up control time.
Dober’s takedown defense is good, but not impenetrable. However, he does a good job of elevating his hips, getting back to his feet and marching opponents down.
This could look a bit like the Alex Hernandez fight, where the relentless pressure and ferocious combinations ultimately resulted in a KO win for Dober.
I suspect Frevola will find initial success, but I’m not confident he can maintain it.
There is a noticeable discrepancy in durability between both combatants, which may turn out to be the story of the fight.
Drew Dober is my pick to win, but I’m not interested in betting him at -210. I may take a poke on Matt Frevola by decision at +450.
Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain
Both combatants have advantages in areas where the other is weak.
Kron Gracie should dominate anytime the fight hits the mat (even if he is on bottom position), while Charles Jourdain is the significantly superior striker.
Gracie is not much of a wrestler, but he may not need to be. The BJJ ace is capable of taking the back from a standing position or pulling guard and sweeping to obtain a dominant position.
Jourdain gets taken down a lot, but is good at scrambling back to his feet. That can work well against wrestlers, but Gracie has the type of submission skills to punish any critical errors.
We saw Jourdain concede the body triangle against Shane Burgos and the fight is likely a wrap if he ends up in that position on Saturday.
That said, I don’t have much confidence in a guy like Gracie. I’m not sure how seriously he takes his MMA career and has been living in the mountains of Montana for the past few years without competing.
This isn’t a fight I’m looking to get involved with, but I believe Kron Gracie is the value side at +145.
Jessica Andrade vs. Yan Xiaonan
Jessica Andrade is one of the most recognizable female athletes in the UFC and she has been competing against the best in the world for a decade.
While only 31-years-of-age, she is much older in fight years and has always been willing to take a punch in order to give one back.
Andrade bulldozed Lauren Murphy, but looked lackluster against Amanda Lemos and Erin Blanchfield.
I expect her to stay on the front foot, rip combinations to the head and body and perhaps mix in takedowns against Yan Xiaonan.
The Chinese athlete has fast hands, good volume and dynamic kicks with the lead leg. She should use the lead leg side kick as a jab to keep the smaller Andrade at bay.
Training at Team Alpha Male, her takedown defense looked improved against Mackenzie Dern.
If the fight stays standing for fifteen minutes, I don’t think these odds will look accurate.
I’ll take a gamble on Yan Xiaonan at anything north of +150.
Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
Both athletes have been on a rampage lately, yet only one can emerge victorious this weekend.
Stylistically, this is the most intriguing fight on the card.
Gilbert Burns has a legendary ground game and has rounded out the rest of his skills over the years.
The Brazilian throws hard counters and low kicks and will tenaciously chain takedown attempts until he secures top position.
He is hittable in the pocket, has a questionable chin and tends to fade when fights get extended.
Belal Muhammad is good in all facets of MMA and will actively exploit an opponent’s weaknesses.
I expect him to take the front foot, weaponize his gas tank and apply heavy boxing pressure – similar to his performance against Sean Brady.
Muhammad has good balance when defending the single leg and strong hips, so it won’t be easy for Burns to ground him.
It’s possible Burns could knock him out with a big hook or overhand, but I don’t think the Brazilian will enjoy fighting off the back foot if he’s unable to secure takedowns.
Furthermore, five rounds favors Muhammad. Even on short notice, I like his chances of winning the championship rounds and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to take down the ADCC champion and grind him out.
I like Belal Muhammad at plus money.
Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
In the early stages of the fight, I like Aljamain Sterling to win minutes.
He has good lateral footwork, dynamic kicks and nice long straight punches. Sterling is not a great boxer in exchanges, but has the ability to manipulate distance so that he doesn’t absorb heavy damage.
His height and length should play to his benefit.
While Sterling will struggle to take down the Olympic gold medalist, a standing back take is not out of the question against the fence.
If Sterling can secure the body triangle – it’s probably a round in the bank.
However, I have reservations whether he can perform optimally for all five rounds. He looked ragged against Petr Yan in the final stages of the rematch and was taking sloppy shots to try and alleviate pressure.
This fight could be a tale of two halves.
Henry Cejudo is returning after a layoff at 36-years-of-age, but he is a consummate professional and has been in the gym constantly.
Cejudo is an effective pressure fighter, with the speed and footwork to negate a reach disadvantage. When he starts slipping the straight punches of Sterling and returning fire – momentum could quickly swing in his favor.
I’m leaning toward Aljamain Sterling reclaiming his belt, I just wish the price was a bit better than -105.