I like UFC 291 from a betting perspective and I have a number of bets on the event. Here are my main card MMA predictions.

Marcos Rogerio De Lima vs. Derrick Lewis

Derrick Lewis is an outlier in terms of career performance. He has wins over Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov and Francis Ngannou – yet is one of the worst round winners in UFC history.

The ability to knock out opponents at any given moment is a blessing, but it’s also a curse because Lewis has never relied on solid fundamentals.

Things have been looking bad for “The Black Beast” and he’s on the worst skid of his career.

He could catch Marcos Rogerio De Lima in a firefight and knock him out, but the Brazilian has more ways to win.

In addition to his thunderous hooks in the pocket, De Lima possesses heavy low kicks (which Lewis has shown a susceptibility to).

It’s also not out of the question for De Lima to hit takedowns, although he will need to measure risk and reward in terms of cardio if he implements a wrestling-heavy game plan.

Worryingly, this fight is at altitude and both men have a propensity to slow down – so hopefully we’ll be done and dusted in the first round.

I bet Marcos Rogerio De Lima a few weeks ago at pick ‘em odds and I’m shocked the line has blown out to -220. At current prices, I think it’s an underdog or pass spot.

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

At first glance, Michael Chiesa has many of the attributes that have given Kevin Holland problems in the past.

“Maverick” has good takedowns from the clinch, suffocating top pressure and slick transitions. He is severely outmatched on the feet, but I expect him to fight to his win condition and push the grappling.

I just don’t know what version of Chiesa we’ll see this weekend. He has suffered numerous injuries throughout his career and is returning from a long layoff in his mid-thirties.

He also has a comfortable analyst gig to fall back on when his fighting days are done (which could be soon).

Holland has been plagued by poor takedown defense in the past, but has been training with Johnny Hendricks and showed signs of improvement against Khamzat Chimaev. I was impressed by Holland’s balance and ability to get back to his feet against Chimaev, despite eventually getting taken down and submitted.

If he can remain standing, Holland should decimate Chiesa in open space.

Furthermore, Holland is the younger man with less mileage on his body – so he still has the potential to improve.

I’ll pick Kevin Holland to win, but I’d need a better price than -150 to consider betting him.

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

I’m surprised that Tony Ferguson has been sanctioned to fight. After so many years of training like a maniac and neglecting defense, Ferguson’s decline was always going to be brutal and now we’re witnessing it.

Despite putting up a valiant effort against Michael Chandler, his next performance against Nate Diaz was catastrophic and it looked as if Ferguson was moving in slow motion.

If we see a similar version of “El Cucuy” this weekend, he will get lit up like a Christmas Tree by an infinitely smoother boxer in Bobby Green.

Green may be declining as well, but at a much slower pace. He fought well against Drew Dober and completely schooled Nasrat Haqparast last year.

Ferguson’s lack of defense should provide ample opportunities for Green to counter-punch his way to a late stoppage or decision victory.

Bobby Green is probably going to win, but betting him is out of the question at -400. There could be some value on over 2.5 rounds at -135.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

Despite moving up from the middleweight division, Alex Pereira was the bigger man at the weigh-ins and will now be fighting at his natural weight class.

I give the Brazilian the advantage standing. Jan Blachowicz is no schmuck, but his output is low and he relies on timing and unpredictability to get the better of opponents – which is unideal for fighting Pereira.

Blachowicz has good defense against kicks, but Pereira throws them with minimal telegraph and has a significant boxing advantage. Pereira’s ability to trick opponents and line them up for shots is unparalleled and we’ve seen Blachowicz get caught by the left hook in numerous fights (which is Pereira’s best strike).

I expect Blachowicz to blitz with punches in order to set up the double leg. Pereira’s first-layer takedown defense is okay, but he is terrible when put on his back.

I’m just not confident Blachowicz can wrestle consistently and ride out two rounds in top position without blowing his gas tank and getting seriously injured on the feet – particularly at altitude.

Pereira will be drilling takedown defense and scrambles with Glover Teixeira and I expect him to attack the body in order to prevent the reactive takedown entry.

I bet Alex Pereira at +120 and I like him to win this fight.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

In the first contest, Dustin Poirier absorbed heavy damage to his leg – but used superior boxing and footwork to exploit the high guard defense of Justin Gaethje and eventually find the stoppage.

People betting Poirier at -150 are expecting the same thing to happen again, but I’m not so sure.

Poirier has shown minimal growth since the first encounter whereas Gaethje just turned out the most mature and technical performance of his career.

I encourage you to watch Gaethje’s fight against Rafael Fiziev and then go back to watch his 2018 fight against Poirier. His feints, shot selection, defense and even body composition are all noticably improved in 2023.

I still expect Gaethje to attack with low kicks early and often, but I think he can hold a much better account of himself in the boxing exchanges against a fighter who is considered to have some of the best pure boxing in MMA.

Both men are elite competitors and I could see this going either way, but I like Justin Gaethje here and I’m considering a bet on him at +125.