UFC Fight Night 204 – Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall – Main Card Betting Predictions

UFC London looks like an entertaining card, but I don’t think it’s great for betting.

I wasn’t interested in breaking down some of the lopsided fights on the main card, so I swapped them out for a couple of prelim fights instead.

I hope you enjoy these MMA predictions.

Jack Shore vs. Timur Valiev

Jack Shore is a top British prospect with lots of momentum behind him.

While clearly skilled, I’m not sure where his ceiling lies in the bantamweight division. If I was forced to guess, I’d say he goes on to become a fringe ranked fighter – but never gets close to the title.

Shore has a good jab and 1-2, but does his best work in the grappling realm.

He likes to drive opponents against the fence, hit trip takedowns and maneuver his way to a dominant position. He has also added a nice reactive double leg to his game, which wasn’t present earlier in his career.

The Welshman is a good guard passer and back taker, but has primarily fought favorable match-ups where his grappling has looked unstoppable.

Shore isn’t the most physical bantamweight and will be facing a gigantic step up in competition against Dagestan’s Timur Valiev.

I don’t think a strong wrestler and sambist like Valiev will allow himself to get pushed against the fence and grinded on.

If anything, I favor Valiev to land takedowns himself. The Dagestani has fast and explosive entries in open space and applies heavy top pressure on the mat.

On the feet, Valiev throws at a high output and stays in perpetual motion. He is a sharp counter-striker and I think he will find a home for his leg kicks – which he fires with vicious intent.

Shore is a dedicated young athlete and could rise to the occasion with the home fans behind him, but I don’t think this is a good fight for him stylistically.

I wasn’t interested in betting Timur Valiev at -175, but -125 is a lot more enticing.

Luana Carolina vs. Molly McCann

Luana Carolina won her last couple of fights, but not in impressive fashion. Both Lupita Godinez and Poliana Botelho were winning before their gas tanks abandoned them (Godinez was on short notice).

The Brazilian is an effective striker, but primarily with her knees, kicks and elbows. She is vulnerable in the pocket and lacks the boxing ability to prevent shorter fighters from closing the distance on her.

A long and lanky flyweight, Carolina is susceptible to double leg takedowns and doesn’t have much going off her back.

Molly McCann is a fan favorite for a reason. She wears her heart on her sleeve and puts everything on the line when she steps inside the octagon.

Despite a height and reach disadvantage, McCann is reliable to take the front foot and force boxing exchanges – she just has to be careful of eating a big knee on the way in.

Coming from an amateur boxing background, I like McCann’s feints, fakes, slips and counters in the pocket. She also has the ability to mix in takedowns, which were instrumental in her victory against Ariane Lipski.

The biggest risk for McCann is getting sucked into the clinch when she barrels forward aggressively.

I’ve seen her concede underhooks and get pinned against the fence in previous fights, and that is the last place she wants to be against a taller Muay Thai stylist in Carolina.

With everything considered, I think this is a good fight for Molly McCann and I understand why money has been trickling in on her.

Paul Craig vs. Nikita Krylov

It’s interesting to see Paul Craig on a winning streak, because the Scotsman has severe limitations to his game.

He is a phenomenal guard player, but lacks conventional wrestling takedowns and is not much of a threat on the feet.

Opponents must underestimate him, because it’s incredible to watch fighters enter his guard time and time again and get tied up. Top contender, Jamahal Hill, admitted to arrogantly overlooking him after getting finished in the first round.

Nikita Krylov comes from a Kyokushin background and is the superior striker by a wide margin. He has good footwork, excellent front kicks to the body and sharp boxing.

The Ukranian is the better wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ, but his grappling IQ scares me. He makes bad decisions during grappling exchanges and ends up in undesirable positions because of it.

If Krylov is resolute in disengaging from entanglements and turning this into a kickboxing match at range, he should look like a -300 favorite. I just can’t trust him to fight smart.

Nikita Krylov should win minutes, but one critical mistake could have him tapping to an armbar or triangle. I’m picking him to win, but there is no value at -185.

Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker

A dark horse in the featherweight division, Arnold Allen has put a nice win streak together and deserves this match-up against a notable name.

Fighting from the southpaw stance, Allen has good lateral movement, fast hands and throws well in combination.

He is boxing-centric and it will be a challenge for him to close the distance and land in the pocket against a longer, rangier, more dynamic opponent.

The Englishman is an underrated grappler, but I don’t think wrestling is a viable path to victory against Dan Hooker – who is good at digging underhooks and stuffing shots (when he’s fresh, at least).

Hooker is an eight-limbed striker with a great understanding of distance.

Going back to his fight with Dustin Poirier, Hooker’s shot selection was intelligent against a southpaw. I liked how he mixed his combinations up to the body and head and I think inside low kicks could be a useful tool here.

Hooker has a brilliant intercepting knee, which he may try and time against the much shorter Allen as he dips his head and crashes the distance.

The biggest problem for Hooker is his defense, which is basically just distance control. He is supremely hittable in the pocket and has a tendency to brawl when he doesn’t need to.

Furthermore, Hooker will be dropping to the featherweight division for the first time since 2016. He did a successful cut in the offseason, but I’ll be interested to see how he looks on the scales.

Stylistically, I think this is a good fight for Dan Hooker – I just hope he can perform well at the lighter weight class.

Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall

Alexander Volkov is one of my favorite heavyweights to watch. A marauding goliath, he walks opponents down while landing front kicks to the midsection and huge combinations to the head.

Standing 6’7, the Russian is absurdly large and as a consequence, is lumbering in his movement.

He has a good knee up the middle and lands big punches at short range when opponents close the distance on him. He will be at a speed disadvantage, so must use timing and precision to his advantage.

Tom Aspinall looks like the fastest heavyweight on the roster – both in terms of foot and hand speed.

The Englishman likes to back opponents up with feints and fakes until they’re pinned against the fence, then blitz forward and unload with flurries.

Aspinall hits extremely hard and all opponents thus far have buckled under the pressure he brings.

The big question is what happens when he gets extended against an adversary who doesn’t fold? The fight against Andrei Arlovski was starting to get interesting right before he scored a takedown and found the finish.

Aspinall might be a legitimate title contender, but I need to see a bit more before picking him against a high level gatekeeper like Volkov.

I have no pre-match action on this fight, but I may look to live bet Alexander Volkov if he doesn’t get nuked in the first round.