Check out my UFC Fight Night predictions for an interesting betting card, headlined by Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield in The Apex Arena.
Jim Miller vs. Alex Hernandez
It’s incredible that Jim Miller made his UFC debut in 2008! The New Jersey native is starting to look ragged at 39-years-of-age, but he’s still performing admirably in the lightweight division and is currently riding a 3-fight winning streak.
Stylistically, I think this is a bad fight for him.
Miller has underrated boxing from the southpaw stance and good low kicks, but his primary aim is to get the fight to the floor. Miller’s neck attacks are the best part of his game and he is an adept back taker, although his BJJ is less effective from bottom position and his cardio depletes rapidly after the first round.
Alex Hernandez is also a front runner and is returning after a failed featherweight bout where he was brutally finished by Billy Quarantillo.
I think lightweight is the right division for Hernandez, but the fact he’s taking this fight on short notice is concerning. We’ve seen him start strong and then completely collapse as soon as adversity presents itself.
Hernandez is more agile, athletic and powerful. He’s also the superior wrestler and can probably hit takedowns if things get dicey on the feet.
I just can’t trust the guy, especially at a juiced price and without a full training camp.
Alex Hernandez is my pick to win, but I won’t be betting him at -225. I see value on over 1.5 rounds at -130.
William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio
William Knight and Marcin Prachnio are two fighters I love to fade and I find hilarious that they’ve been matched up against each other.
I expect Prachnio to win minutes while he’s fresh. The Polish striker is more dynamic on the feet and will have a considerable size advantage.
Prachnio is primarily known as a kicker, although his boxing skills (both offensive and defensive) have improved in recent fights. He was very susceptible to being punched in the face earlier in his career and actually fights with his guard up nowadays!
I worry for Prachnio if he can’t find a finish in the first round and a half. His cardio is sketchy and so is his chin.
We also saw him get taken down by Phillipe Lins in his most recent performance.
Knight is extremely raw as far as skills go, but he hits hard and can pace himself for fifteen minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if “Knightmare” was able to hit takedowns using brute strength in the second half of the fight.
We’ve seen him win rounds with big impactful moments and he’s capable of finding a finish all the way through the contest.
I’ll pick William Knight to win, but I want my money nowhere near this volatile fight.
Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues
Speaking of fighters with raw skills, Josh Parisian is another athlete that comes to mind.
Parisian has a good chin and is reliable to take the front foot, but his striking is hideous. His low kicks are effective, but the rest of his repertoire is completely haphazard.
If the fight takes place in open space, he will get lit up by the cleaner straight punches of Jamal Pogues.
The thing is, Pogues isn’t a real heavyweight – whereas Parisian is.
Pogues should probably be competing at light heavyweight and he had a noticeable amount of fat on his body in his recent Contender Series contest.
This fight is in the smaller octagon and if Parisian can absorb damage while moving forward, he might be able to wear out his adversary and muscle him to the floor. We typically see Parisian go for the double leg against the fence and he has finished numerous opponents by way of ground and pound.
I can see why Josh Parisian is the underdog, but +205 feels wide to me. This could be a good fight for live betting.
Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga
Jordan Wright is a fighter with some good aspects to his game, as well as some glaring shortcomings.
“The Beverly Hills Ninja” has a powerful, dynamic kicking game and is dangerous from the Thai clinch. However, his boxing defense is disastrous, he can’t take a punch and his gas tank abandons him after a round.
It sounds like he is relishing moving up to the light heavyweight division and focussing more on training rather than cutting weight.
That said, part of the reason he gasses so badly is his poor pacing and lack of composure.
Wright is the ultimate example of a good hammer and bad nail and I’m not sure whether he has the mental resolve to be competitive at this level.
Despite his flaws, this is a winnable fight for him.
Zac Pauga made the transition from football to MMA later in life and his skills are crude for an athlete in his mid thirties. He uses feints effectively and throws basic boxing combinations, but there is nothing remarkable about his game.
He will also look for takedowns when the opportunities are available, although Wright has good takedown defense while he’s fresh.
Pauga isn’t the fastest athlete, but he is physically sturdy and can probably outlast his opponent if exchanges aren’t going his way initially.
I understand why Zac Pauga is the favorite, but there is no way I’d bet him at -270. I can’t blame anyone for taking a gamble on the underdog.
Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield
Most handicappers would agree that Erin Blanchfield looks like an impressive prospect, but this main event is a tall order for such a young fighter.
A lifelong BJJ player, Blanchfield is a good guard passer, applies stifling top pressure and is slick in transition. She has effective takedowns from the clinch and hit a beautiful reactive double leg on Molly McCann in her last fight.
At 23-years-of-age, I still think she has some physical maturing to do and we saw her struggle to hit takedowns on JJ Aldrich before pulling a guillotine finish out of thin air.
On the feet, Blanchfield is a work in progress. Her offense is serviceable, but her face is a magnet for punches and she hasn’t yet faced someone who can really inflict damage on her.
Jessica Andrade is taking this fight on short notice, but the Brazilian is a cardio machine and is one of the few fighters on the roster who could take a five rounder with minimal training and still perform well.
We saw Andrade come off one of her best performances last month without taking much damage, so I doubt she could’ve gotten out of shape.
With tenacious aggression, Andrade walks opponents down and lets rip in the pocket. I love how she doubles up punches with the same hand and smashes the body in order to set up head shots.
There is no question in my mind whether Andrade will win the striking, but can she stop the takedown?
Going back a few years, Andrade was repeatedly taken down in the clinch by Valentina Shevchenko and then finished from the crucifix position (which is also one of Blanchfield’s favorite positions).
However, Shevchenko is extremely physical for a female flyweight and she is also black belt judoka and body lock specialist. I don’t think it’s a guarantee that a BJJ player like Blanchfield who learned takedowns for MMA will have the same success.
Blanchfield may have to time precise takedown entries in open space in order to get the fight to the mat.
Against Shevchenko, Andrade was able to get back to her feet numerous times. Unlike in that fight, Andrade should be able to land heavy artillery on Blanchfield every time the fight is standing.
Furthermore, it’s not out of the question for Andrade to hit takedowns of her own. The Brazilian is known for her high crotch slams, once knocking out Rose Namajunas with the technique in a championship bout.
Going back even further – Andrade came through as a sizeable underdog against Claudia Gadelha, mauling the decorated grappler from top position.
You can make a case for both fighters, but I have to side with the more proven commodity in Jessica Andrade at -130.