Check out my main card UFC Fight Night predictions for an entertaining event, headlined by Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann in The Apex Arena.
Erick Gonzalez vs. Trevor Peek
This should be on the Combate Global prelims, not on the main card of a UFC Fight Night.
Both men are horrific brawlers who like to throw with reckless intent and completely forgo defense.
Trevor Peek has the cleaner technique on his punches and can probably hit takedowns if things get dicey on the feet, but there is no way I’d trust a flawed fighter like him at -220.
I’m not interested in betting Erick Gonzalez either, although I think he is the value side at +190.
Mike Mallot vs. Yohan Lainesse
I’m struggling to get a read on Mike Mallot, primarily because he has such little footage available since 2015.
The Canadian throws nice compact punches in the pocket, possesses concussive power and has dangerous neck attacks – but I can’t tell you a whole lot more than that.
He has a black belt in BJJ and was a coach at Team Alpha Male, but I haven’t seen any tape of his wrestling or positional grappling.
His chin looks a bit suspect and I don’t know how his cardio will hold up if he’s dragged into the later rounds.
Yohan Lainesse is an unremarkable welterweight. He’s a physically strong athlete with severe power in his hands, but I don’t think there is much nuance to his game.
He telegraphs punches and slows down whenever fights get extended.
Lainesse seems like a competent grappler when he’s the one on top, but I don’t like what I see from him off his back.
My inclination is that Mike Mallot is the superior mixed martial artist, but I have zero interest in betting him at -210.
Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa
After being side-lined with a number of injuries for over three years, Tatiana Suarez makes her highly anticipated return.
A lifelong wrestler, Suarez has an excellent variety of takedowns in her arsenal and will chain attempts tenaciously in the clinch.
Unlike other grapplers who are content to ride out rounds in top position, Suarez is always searching for the finish – whether by submission or ground strikes.
Her striking is janky and unstructured, but her fights rarely take place in open space for long.
Having lifted weights during the pandemic, Suarez will take on Montana De La Rosa at flyweight – with plans to drop back to strawweight for her next bout.
Da La Rosa is serviceable in each facet of MMA, but nothing about her game stands out.
Presumably, she will try to lean on her high school wrestling experience in order to keep the fight standing and win rounds with her boxing – but I’m not optimistic.
Suarez has manhandled all opponents thus far and I believe you’d need to be an elite wrestler to withstand her overwhelming attacks. We’ve seen Suarez dominate an All-American in Carla Esparza and I don’t think this will be much different.
However, I need to see that Suarez is still the same fighter after the layoff. She’s now 32-years-of-age and may need to shake off some ring rust.
Tatiana Suarez should win comfortably, but her -750 price tag makes her unplayable.
Augusto Sakai vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Augusto Sakai is a fighter desperately in need of a win, having dropped his last four contests by way of TKO.
More alarming still, the Brazilian has looked utterly shop worn and hasn’t been able to pull the trigger.
Skill for skill, I believe Sakai is a superior striker to Don’Tale Mayes. He could have success with low kicks, counters and in the clinch – but what version of him will we see this weekend?
Mayes is no world beater, but he is bigger, stronger and more athletic. He doesn’t manage distance well and is hittable on the inside – but I like his teep kicks to the midsection as well as big combinations to the head.
I think the striking should generally be competitive.
Hopefully Mayes has the intelligence to mix in some takedowns. We saw him take this approach against Josh Parisian and despite possessing a brown belt in BJJ, Sakai has looked useless off his back.
Don’Tale Mayes is a difficult guy to trust, but I like him in this spot at +110.
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen
I was highly critical of Andre Muniz when he first entered the UFC, but he has made steady improvements in every fight.
The Brazilian is strongest on the mat, with good positional awareness and slick submissions.
His striking has improved by leaps and bounds and he has good timing on his single and double leg takedowns.
I still have some concerns about his cardio. We haven’t seen anyone put a pace on him recently, but it’s only a matter of time before someone drags him into a dog fight.
Brendan Allen is the superior striker and I think the open stance dynamics suit him. However, he is too comfortable with being taken down.
Allen is capable of scrambling to a dominant position and getting back to his feet – but this will be the most credentialed grappler he has faced thus far.
Muniz could slow the fight down and win via positional control.
I’d like to see Allen rip the body and try to wear on Muniz in the clinch. If the American is to emerge victorious, he’ll have to battle through some early adversity.
I understand why Brendan Allen is the underdog, but I think he is the value side at +190.