Check out my UFC Fight Night predictions for an entertaining card, headlined by Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Vitor Petrino vs. Anton Turkalj
Despite racking up a string of vicious knockout victories, I haven’t been impressed with Vitor Petrino.
He throws ferocious boxing combinations and is blessed with concussive power, but his game is raw. At 25-years-of-age he has plenty of time to develop, but his cardio and defensive grappling both look sketchy.
He was rocked badly and conceded a back take in his Contender Series fight before rallying and finding the finish.
Anton Turkalj is also a work in progress. The Swede is an effective striker, albeit his style is unaesthetic and janky.
I dislike how Turkalj leaves his chin high in exchanges and he will be at risk of getting knocked unconscious early in the fight.
However, I think Turkalj has a sizable grappling edge. I liked how he stuck to Acácio dos Santos like a bad rash and he has good instincts for taking the back.
If Turkalj can weather an early storm, I think he can wear his opponent out with a grappling assault and possibly find a late finish.
I’ll pick Anton Turkalj to win, but this is a fight I’ll be looking to live bet.
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Jonathan Martinez
Hailing from Dagestan, Said Nurmagomedov is not your typical top position wrestler. He has some grappling in his back pocket – but generally prefers to fight at kickboxing range.
Nurmagomedov has dynamic kicks with the lead leg, fast hands and a plethora of spinning attacks. Personally, I think he goes to the well a little too much with the spinning strikes – but that’s just my opinion.
The Dagestani is a potent finisher who can lock up a guillotine at any minute, but his workrate is underwhelming when fights get extended.
His third round against Douglas Silva de Andrade was particularly alarming, as he was lying on his back with no urgency to get to his feet.
Jonathan Martinez has a questionable chin, but has all the skills to compete in a striking match.
Fighting from the southpaw stance, Martinez is left side dominant and will throw heavy kicks to the legs, body and head.
The American has improved his takedown and submission defense in recent years and is just entering his prime at 28-years-of-age. Martinez has also shown an ability to check low kicks, which will be useful in this bout.
This is a much closer fight than the odds indicate and I believe Jonathan Martinez is worth a bet at +200.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Austin Lingo
Austin Lingo brings a boxing-centric style inside the cage. The Fortis MMA fighter will plod forward, double up the jab and try to pop opponents with his right hand.
He showcased serviceable takedown defense against Jacob Kilburn, but he doesn’t want to be on the mat for a single second in this contest.
Lingo is a tough and determined fighter, but he is slow and unathletic by UFC standards.
Ricardo Ramos is longer, faster and has the more complete skill set. The Brazilian is an eight-limbed striker with some of the nastiest spinning back elbows I’ve seen.
He is also a slick BJJ player with excellent back takes, so expect him to look for the reactive takedown as Lingo marches forward aggressively.
The biggest knock on Ramos is that he’s a front runner with low volume. It wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility for Lingo to cut off the octagon, slip the jab of Ramos and make him pay with hard punches if the fight gets extended.
Sayif Saud is good at making his fighters perform to their most probable win conditions, so look for a high pressure game plan from Lingo.
Ricardo Ramos is the rightful favorite and will probably win this fight, but I have zero interest in betting him at -350.
Alexander Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov
I was happy to win my bet on Marcin Tybura against Alexander Romanov, albeit the fight easily could’ve been scored as a draw.
Romanov is an explosive wrestler with a good variety of takedowns and the ability to tire opponents out by making them carry his weight. However, the rest of his game is lacking.
His striking is a mess, he doesn’t set up his takedown entries and his BJJ is unrefined.
He is also one of the least energy efficient fighters on the roster and wilts when he cannot get the early finish.
I think he can hit takedowns on Alexander Volkov in the first round, but he will tire if he’s made to work hard.
Volkov was taken down and submitted by Tom Aspinall, but did a much better job of staying vertical against Marcin Tybura.
It’s worth noting that Aspinall timed Volkov with a beautiful reactive shot which led to the finish, whereas I suspect Romanov will be trying to muscle him down from the clinch.
In a striking contest, Vokkov has a significant advantage and he is much better at pacing himself over fifteen minutes.
I’ll pick Alexander Volkov to win, but I think live betting is the best approach for this fight.
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann is a fighter with accurate, powerful punches as well as a lethal guillotine – but he has plenty of holes in his game.
He is chinny, slows down dramatically when dragged into deep waters and his MMA grappling is not well-rounded.
Nikita Krylov should be able to compete fine on the feet and he will have a major advantage at kicking range. He has significantly improved his grappling in recent years and will use punches to disguise his takedown entries.
I believe the Ukranian should use his wrestling and top control to win this fight – but he must be aware of the guillotine threat.
I consider Krylov to be the more skilled fighter with the deeper gas tank, but I don’t think he’s a cerebral guy.
We saw him dive into Paul Craig’s guard and get submitted and then swing punches with Volkan Oezdemir in the pocket.
Despite having the ability to pitch a shutout, I think Krylov will give Spann opportunities to land a big punch or latch onto his neck in the first round.
I like Nikita Krylov to win, but a few things give me pause for concern at -170.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
A true cardio machine, Merab Dvalishvili comes from a judo/sambo base and has one of the most insane workrates on the UFC roster.
The Georgian has messy striking and his top control is lacking, but he never stops hustling for takedowns and will pin his opponents against the fence in order to win minutes.
Stylistically, I think this is a difficult fight for him.
Petr Yan is the infinitely more seasoned striker. The Siberian has superb boxing in open space as well as an underrated clinch game from years of training in Thailand.
Yan is great at controlling wrists, battering opponents with the single collar tie and landing elbows off the clinch break. I don’t think Dvalishvili will have an easy time pushing him against the wall and winning rounds like he did against Jose Aldo and John Dodson.
The Georgian will probably hit takedowns, but I don’t believe he will keep the fight on the mat unless he can secure the body triangle. Yan is an excellent scrambler and has faced tenacious grapplers like this before.
The Unified rules should also favor Yan, since he will be the one landing the harder strikes.
I think Petr Yan was worth a bet at -170, although his current price tag of -275 holds no interest.