I like UFC Fight Night 224 from a betting perspective. There are plenty of lesser-known athletes on the card and I find events like this to be the best for wagering.

Here are my breakdowns for the main card.

Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez

Standing 6’3 at lightweight, Joel Alvarez has a preposterous frame for the division and it feels inevitable he will wind up at welterweight in the future.

The Spaniard applies heavy pressure on the feet, forcing opponents to shoot sloppy takedowns and dive into a spider’s web of submissions.

His striking looked vastly improved against Thiago Moises, where we also saw him dodge and check low kicks (which should be beneficial here).

Alvarez isn’t much of a wrestler and is content to fight off his back. This style of grappling has a ceiling, since there are so many good top control wrestlers at the UFC level who can nullify submission attempts from bottom position.

We saw Arman Tsarukyan take Alvarez down with ease and pulverize him with ground and pound. Marc Diakiese is also capable of hitting takedowns, but he is far less likely to find a finish on the mat.

I expect the striking exchanges to be close, so this probably comes down to Diakiese’s positional control versus the submission attempts from Alvarez.

Could Diakiese ride Alvarez out for fifteen minutes without incurring heavy damage or getting his neck snatched up? It’s possible in theory, but I don’t love his chances.

Diakiese is a plus athlete with a well-rounded skill set, but his performances fluctuate from fight to fight and he has been punished for momentary lapses of concentration in the past.

I favor Joel Alvarez to win, but -190 is getting ridiculous. I believe this is an underdog or pass spot as far as betting goes.

Andre Muniz vs. Paul Craig

Paul Craig is labeled as a grappling specialist, but this isn’t strictly true. The Scotsman is a deadly guard player, but lacks the wrestling and scrambling ability of an elite MMA grappler.

Thus, we often see Craig latch onto opponents, drag them on top of him and then fish for submissions off his back.

It’s fantastic whenever he pulls off a miracle triangle, but he gets battered and bruised in every fight and has never developed striking fundamentals.

Skill for skill, Andre Muniz has him covered everywhere. Furthermore, Muniz will be the most credentialed BJJ player that Craig has fought and it’s unlikely the Scotsman can find a submission off his back.

That said, Craig is a gritty bastard and will have the British crowd behind him.

We’ve seen him dig deep and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat before, and Muniz is a fighter who fades drastically in the later rounds.

If the fight becomes chaotic and cardio-draining, there is always the possibility for Craig to capitalize when windows of opportunity present themselves.

Andre Muniz is the pick, but betting him is out of the question at -230.

Andre Fili vs. Nathaniel Wood

When this was first announced, I was pretty sure I’d be taking an underdog shot on Andre Fili. After taping, I’m less enthusiastic.

A long-term member of Team Alpha Male, Fili always had good takedowns and scrambles – but his striking has improved considerably in the later stages of his career.

He fights effectively from both stances, has a crisp jab and does a great job of setting up his head kick with punches.

While height and reach are on the side of the American, I don’t like how much Fili gets hit and I’m not convinced he can keep the much shorter Nathaniel Wood at the end of his strikes.

Wood’s ability to manipulate distance looked excellent against Charles Jourdain and I expect the British fighter to get the better of boxing exchanges.

Both men are capable of hitting takedowns and whoever wins the grappling will be the one on top. Fili would be wise to wrestle in order to disrupt Wood’s boxing rhythm and a back take could be a round in the bank.

There are no odds on this fight that excite me, but Nathaniel Wood to win by decision is the line that stands out the most at +120.

Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko

If you have a loud and abrasive personality, Uncle Dana is sure to love you – hence why Molly McCann has been matched up favorably in front of her home fans.

The Liverpudlian is one-dimensional, but her ability to take the front foot, weave into the pocket and throw punches in bunches will keep her in the win column against lower-level competition.

Julija Stoliarenko likes to bite down on the mouthpiece and throw leather, but she is extremely hittable and suffers from bad striking mechanics – which makes her slow down quickly.

We saw Stoliarenko hit a nice reactive double leg against Jessica Rose-Clark and immediately transition to the arm bar to get her first UFC win. She could pull off somehting similar against McCann (who has shown a weakness on the mat), but it needs to happen before Soliarenko’s gas tank abandons her.

I have no pre-match action on this fight but I’ll be watching for a potential live bet entry on Molly McCann.

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura

Tom Aspinall has plenty of positive attributes for a heavyweight. He moves light on his feet, possesses fast hands, shoots well-timed takedowns and is a skilled grappler from top position.

However, betting him is unfathomable at -500 since we still haven’t seen him fight into the later rounds or battle through adversity.

It’s possible he earns another early stoppage, but Marcin Tybura is a savvy veteran who knows how to weather a storm and implement his grappling.

What happens if Aspinall expends a ton of energy and Tybura is still hanging tough in the second and third rounds?

Aspinall might be nowhere near as good off his back as he is on top and all that explosive power may diminish when the fight becomes ugly and gruelling.

Tom Aspinall could be the real deal, but I lean towards scepticism. I have no action on this fight, but I’m hoping to get some questions answered.