UFC on ESPN 43 is an underwhelming card, both in terms of entertainment value and betting opportunities. Nevertheless, here are my MMA picks for the main card.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev

Standing 6’3 at middleweight, Chidi Njokuani has an amazing frame for a Muay Thai striker. He utilizes feints effectively, attacks with eight limbs and packs devastating power.

He has worked on his defensive grappling in recent years, so that he can keep fights standing and capitalize on his strengths.

A few years ago, his grappling was a huge liability.

Despite the improvements, when you put him flat on his back in the middle of the cage and force him to struggle through adversity – he has a tendency to wilt.

Some fighters are good at being the hammer, but bad at being the nail – and I think Njokuani is one of them.

Albert Duraev has the polar opposite skill set. His possesses a functional boxing game, which is primarily used in order to set up the level change.

He may have a hard time getting Njokuani to respect his hands in order to set up his wrestling, but I think he has a good chance of grounding his foe once he grabs hold of him.

The Chechen will attack the lower and upper body with a wrestling onslaught and stick to opponents like glue. He applies suffocating top pressure and is good at controlling the wrists and legs while landing ground strikes.

You can make a case for either fighter, but Albert Duraev is the more appealing side to me at +140.

Alex Perez vs. Manel Kape

Alex Perez is one of the most highly skilled flyweights in the UFC. He throws crisp boxing combinations, hard legs kicks and is a well-rounded MMA grappler.

I just have difficulty trusting the guy.

He stuck his neck in the wrong place against a guillotine expert in Deiveson Figueiredo and immediately conceded a back take against a rear-naked choke specialist in Alexandre Pantoja.

Furthermore, he has pulled out of fights with injuries and has only had a couple of minutes of cage time since 2020.

I think he can land more volume than Manel Kape and mix in takedowns to win rounds – but I have concerns over his physical and mental state.

Kape is a plus athlete with fast hands, precise counters and deadly kicks when he switches to southpaw.

However, he is prone to periods of inactivity, can concede takedowns and has no understanding of round-winning optics.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kape scored a spectacular knockout with a spinning or flying attack, but I can’t get behind him at -180.

I’d take Alex Perez at +150 if I knew he was in top condition, but I’ll reluctantly have to pass on this fight.

Andrea Lee vs. Maycee Barber

This is an interesting stylistic clash, because I consider Andre Lee to have the better skill set than Maycee Barber.

Lee should be able to rack up volume in open space with her superior movement, technical boxing and intelligent shot selection. Unfortunately, I just don’t think she can deal with the physicality of her opponent.

Barber’s strength is an unfair advantage in women’s MMA. She is not the most talented kickboxer, but she does a good job of fighting hands and battering women in the clinch with elbows and knees.

Things could get interesting if Lee is able to hit a takedown or sweep Barber after ending up on her back, but I’m more inclined to believe this will be a striking affair with Lee getting pinned against the fence for long periods.

I’ll pick Maycee Barber to win, but there is zero value on her -275 moneyline.

Nate Landwehr vs. Austin Lingo

I love Nate Landwehr for coming through as the underdog and hammering David Onama, but he is not the kind of guy you should bet as a juiced favorite.

Landwehr is labelled as a wrestler, but his takedowns are not overwhelming. His ability to apply pressure, smash opponents in the clinch and break them as fights get extended is what makes him so dangerous.

However, I don’t think his open space striking is anything special and he loves to brawl more than he should.

Austin Lingo is a gritty and unpretentious kind of striker. His style is boxing-centric, with a good lead hand and excellent body shots (which Landwehr is susceptible to).

We haven’t seen Lingo face a good grappler since his UFC debut in 2020, so it’s possible he still has a weakness on the ground. However, he’s been training at a good camp and we saw a bit of takedown defense against Jacob Kilburn – so he could be improving in this area at 28-years-of-age.

I expect the Texas crowd to get behind Lingo and he has the perfect dance partner to oblige him in a wild and chaotic war.

I took half a unit on Austin Lingo at +230, this should play out competitively.

Holly Holm vs. Yana Santos

The matchmakers are having a laugh at our expense with this co-main event.

I respect everyone who steps inside the octagon, but Holly Holm and Yana Santos are two of the least exciting fighters on the roster.

Both women typically win fights by controlling their opponents against the fence, so I expect we see an ugly clinch-fest for fifteen minutes.

I’m not betting on this fight (or watching it).

Cory Sandhagen vs. Marlon Vera

Cory Sandhagen has one of the most aesthetic striking styles in the UFC. His footwork, stance switches and talent for walking opponents onto shots is mesmerizing to watch.

“The Sandman” will shoot takedowns to mix things up and his unpredictability is what makes him so special.

Despite the fleet-footed movement, Sandhagen is not a defensive wizard and he leaves his chin out there to be hit. It’s fortunate he wears damage well, because I think Marlon Vera will have opportunities to punish him.

Vera is a slow starter and can get out-landed for large periods, but he consistently finds opportunities to hurt opponents.

He has one of the best chins in the UFC, which makes it difficult to get his respect and deter his forward momentum.

The Ecuadorian stands tall in his stance and is open to takedowns, but he is extremely aggressive off his back with elbows and submission attempts – so I don’t think Sandhagen will be able to rack up significant control time.

I expect Sandhagen to win minutes, but Vera can absolutely find big moments and swing rounds in his favor.

Ultimately, I expect this to play out closely and I see some value on Marlon Vera at +145.