UFC on ESPN 44 has some interesting fights, but it looks disastrous from a betting perspective.

Nevertheless, here are my main card MMA predictions.

Clay Guida vs. Rafa Garcia

I have a hard time getting a read on Rafa Garcia. His game is well-rounded and functional, yet he doesn’t excel in any one area.

He’s also undersized for a lightweight and has questionable cardio, although he’s willing to dig deep when the going gets tough in order to grind out victories.

All of his career wins have come against lower tier opponents and I suspect he’s good enough to hang in the UFC but not good enough to ascend the lightweight rankings.

At 41-years-of-age, Clay Guida’s best years are behind him.

However, his style ages well. His striking has always been deficient and he has a habit of diving into front chokes, but his cardio is still superb and he can wrestle his ass off for fifteen minutes.

Garcia has the better skill set across the board, but I’d need to be more confident he can deal with this style of opponent in order to bet him at -250.

It wouldn’t be unfeasible for Guida to push Garcia against the fence and win another disgusting close decision.

Clay Guida is probably the value side at +210, but this is not a fight I want to get involved with.

Pedro Munhoz vs. Chris Gutierrez

Pedro Munhoz’s fighting style is simplistic, yet effective. He aims to walk opponents down, land calf kicks, box them up in the pocket and force them to panic-wrestle into his lethal guillotine choke.

His style works brilliantly against stationary opponents, but he struggles against athletes who can stick and move.

Munhoz relies on his durability and leaves his chin out there to be hit – which often results in him being out-landed and losing on the scorecards.

Chris Gutierrez is the longer, faster, more agile combatant and I think he can make this a frustrating night for “The Young Punisher” so long as he manages distance effectively.

Both men have good leg kicks, but Gutierrez throws his punches straight down the barrel whereas Munhoz is only effective in the pocket with wider shots.

I’m not touching Chris Gutierrez straight up at -200, but there might be a bit of value on his decision line at +110.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Tanner Boser

This is an intriguing clash of styles, since both men have advantages where the other is weak.

Tanner Boser is making the right decision to drop down to the light heavyweight division. He was undersized as a heavyweight, which is a massive problem when your style relies on stuffing takedowns.

Boser was out-wrestled against Ilir Latifi and Rodrigo Nascimento and he struggled to get back to his feet in those fights.

The Canadian is the infinitely superior striker and should have a cardio advantage, but he cannot afford to concede multiple takedowns against Ion Cutelaba.

With a Greco-Roman wrestling base, Cutelaba has excellent trips and throws from the clinch, but will also shoot on the lower body when he needs to. “Hulk” is extremely sticky and will control opponents against the fence and hit mat returns for as long as his gas tank will allow.

The problem with Cutelaba is that he utilizes lots of explosive movements and doesn’t have the cardio to sustain his fighting style. We’ve seen him come out hot in round one and fall to pieces whenever he can’t get the early finish.

He may not gas out if he is met with little resistance to his takedowns and could win the first two rounds via positional control – but he’s still a sketchy fighter to bet on as a favorite.

Ion Cutelaba is my pick to win, but I won’t be getting involved with any pre-match wagering.

Dustin Jacoby vs. Azamat Murzakanov

I’m not sold on Azamat Murzanakov

The Russian is short and compact for a light heavyweight, with good in-and-out movement and a devastating left overhand – but I don’t see much depth to his game.

He had an awful fight against Tafon Nchukwi before landing the miracle knockout and then performed much better against Devin Clark – who didn’t look himself that evening.

Murzanakov will mix takedowns into his repertoire, but he’ll have a hard time controlling Dustin Jacoby for prolonged periods.

I have concerns about Jacoby’s boxing defense against a power puncher, but the American is bigger, longer and a much more sophisticated striker.

I like how Jacoby mixes up his offense to the legs, body and head and I think his ability to switch stances will serve him well here.

Murzakanov’s style seems more suited against orthodox opponents and I liked the way Jacoby got his jab and calf kicks going from the southpaw stance against Khalil Rountree.

Justin Jacoby should be the superior minute winner and I like him to win if he can stay safe defensively.

Edson Barboza vs. Billy Quarantillo

I expect Edson Barboza to get off to a good start. The Brazilian should be able to land body shots and low kicks at will against an extremely hittable opponent.

While Barboza has good first layer takedown defense, he is as useless as a turtle when you put him on his back and will slow down when the fight gets extended. His path to victory involves severely demobilizing Billy Quarantillo on the feet and hopefully putting him away early.

Quarantillo is not the most skillful pressure fighter, but he weaponizes his cardio and has the ability to outlast more technically proficient opponents.

While Quarantillo is durable, he doesn’t want to hang in open space for long against the Muay Thai specialist. He must close the gap immediately.

Quarantillo is not an overwhelming wrestler, but he should be able to have his way with Barboza once the fight is horizontal.

I believe Edson Barboza is the value side pre-match at +150, but this is a fight I’ll be looking to live bet.

Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen

Arnold Allen has been surging up the featherweight rankings and is finally facing an elite opponent.

At 29-years-of-age, Allen is entering his athletic prime and appears to be making improvements from fight to fight.

He has excellent footwork, a piston of a left hand and beautiful pull counters – but I’m not fully convinced he’s a championship level featherweight.

His speed advantage was evident against Calvin Kattar, but we only got to see that play out for a round.

I think I speak for everyone who lost money on Kattar in saying we expected him to start slowly and then work his way into the fight – but we weren’t able to witness that due to an unfortunate injury.

Allen’s 2021 fight against Sodiq Yusuff was alarming. He won with big moments, but produced low volume across fifteen minutes and looked ragged in the later stages of the fight.

This is a five round fight. What is he going to look like in deep waters against one of the most insane output machines we’ve seen in the UFC?

Max Holloway could be on the decline.

While only 31-years-of-age, Holloway has been fighting the best featherweights in the world for years and has taken absurd amounts of damage.

The Hawaiian performed brilliantly against Calvin Kattar in 2021, but subsequently had two lackluster fights against Yair Rodriguez and Alex Volkanovski.

Against Volkanovski, he couldn’t get into a groove. Holloway needs momentum in order to get loose in the pocket, yet Volkanovski made him miss, make him pay and remained defensively tight.

We could see a similar dynamic in the early stages of this fight, but I’m not convinced Allen can keep it up. Even if Holloway is a bit diminished, I still think this is a good fight for him.

Max Holloway is my pick to win, but a few things give me pause for concern at -170. This is a fight I’ll be looking to live bet.