Instead of breaking down the main card of UFC on ESPN 48, I’ve selected a handful of fights that I find stylistically interesting. Here are my MMA predictions from a betting perspective.

Alexander Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Alexander Romanov is the definition of a fighter who is a good hammer and a lousy nail.

The Moldovan is a freakishly strong wrestler, known for high-amplitude slams and mat returns when his cardio is fresh. However, his courage disappears when things aren’t going his way and his last performance against Alexander Volkov was particularly embarrassing.

Romanov’s striking fundamentals are lacking and he struggles to pace himself over fifteen minutes.

The Moldovan faces a contrasting style in Blagoy Ivanov – a fighter who lacks explosiveness, yet performs consistently from round to round.

Ivanov comes from a sambo background and handles himself adequately in the clinch. The Bulgarian struggles when put flat on his back, but does an excellent job of pummeling for underhooks and is hard to take down.

While his output is low, Ivanov is the far more technical boxer – with a good lead hand and precise counters. Ivanov is also known to attack the body, which would be a great idea against Romanov.

Romanov could walk out, slam Ivanov to the mat and pulverize him in the first round – but I don’t like his chances if the fight gets extended.

I see value on Blagoy Ivanov as the +115 underdog.

Karol Rosa vs. Yana Santos

Karol Rosa is the higher-level mixed martial artist, but I still have trepidation when thinking about betting her.

The Brazilian is the more skilled striker in open space and can ride out rounds in top position if she’s able to hit takedowns – but I hate how she concedes underhooks and gets pinned against the fence.

Yana Santos throws lots of naked kicks and blocks punches with her face, but she’s a tough and gritty combatant who will take the front foot and stall fights out in the clinch.

I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen a women’s MMA match decided by physicality and positional control – which gives Santos a clear win condition against a more skillful opponent.

I’ll pick Karol Rosa to get her hand raised, but I’d need a better price than -175 to consider betting her.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

With a background in professional boxing, Ismael Bonfim’s striking is the best part of his game. The Brazilian picks his shots intelligently, rips the body effectively and has excellent timing on his counters.

He thoroughly outclassed Terrance McKinney in his UFC debut and finished the fight with a spectacular flying knee – but he is still a bit unproven at this stage in his career.

He has strong hips and good initial takedown defense, but hasn’t fought a tenacious grappling specialist until now.

Benoit Saint-Denis has a nice southpaw body kick and he throws punches with vicious intent, but leaves his chin high and is vulnerable to counters. The Frenchman cannot get stuck in prolonged exchanges or he will be knocked out by the more technical boxer.

Fortunately for Saint-Denis, he understands that grappling is his best path to victory and is absolutely dogged in getting the fight to the mat. Saint-Denis is big for a lightweight, strong as an ox and has good instincts for taking the back.

It’s possible Bonfim stuffs takedowns, slows the fight down and forces his adversary into a striking fight that he can’t handle – but I don’t think that scenario is as probable as his -300 price tag would suggest.

I don’t favor Benoit Saint-Denis outright, but I believe there is value on him at +250 for a smaller speculative bet.

Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson

I’m unsure what to make of Damir Ismagulov. After losing to Arman Tsarukyan, he announced that he was battling injuries and immediately retired.

Yet now he is back, facing a surging prospect.

Is he free from injuries and happy to resume his career or does he simply want another paycheck? I have no idea.

Ismagulov is the infinitely more polished striker with an educated lead hand and smooth boxing, but he struggled to disengage from a tenacious wrestler in his last fight and ultimately conceded too much control time across fifteen minutes.

Grant Dawson will be looking to do the exact same thing to him.

While Dawson lacks striking in order to set up his takedowns, he still has fast entries and does a great job of wrestling the legs as well as the body.

Ismagulov has strong hips and fights the hands well, but he can be taken down with a persistent approach and I could see him conceding a back take as he tries to get to his feet.

That said, striking scores more than empty control time and every round starts on the feet. I also believe Ismagulov will have the cardio advantage in the later stages of the fight.

I slightly lean toward Damir Ismagulov, but I’m not confident whatsoever.

Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov

I’m perplexed by this matchmaking. Abus Magomedov has one fight in the UFC, yet is competing in the main event against an experienced veteran in Sean Strickland who has been in the UFC since 2014!

Magomedov is no schmuck, but a lot of his wins were early finishes against lower tier competition.

I don’t have a complete read on his skill set, but he out-struck and submitted a formidable opponent in KSW in 2020 before signing with the UFC. It’s worth a watch (I’ve timestamped the video).

He is a big, powerful athlete with a nice variety of kicks and heavy boxing combinations – but I don’t see anything that would make him stand out in the UFC’s stacked middleweight division.

It’s also unclear how he will fare in a longer fight.

Magomedov is a potent finisher and he puts a lot of power into his shots, but guys like that typically fade in high-paced contests.

We know Sean Strickland can perform for five hard rounds coming off the couch and he is a lot more efficient with his energy expenditure.

Strickland is a bit of a meathead, but he does good job of fighting behind the jab, parrying shots and making the octagon claustrophobic for opponents.

If Magomedov can’t earn Strickland’s respect, he may have a rough time fighting off the back foot – especially if Strickland uses grappling to wear him out.

I had no interest in Sean Strickland at -190 last week, but the price has improved and -145 is a lot more enticing.