I do not like UFC Vegas 46 from a betting perspective and I’m struggling to find good wagering opportunities. Nevertheless, here are my main card MMA predictions.
Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson
Julian Erosa is one of the more underrated fighters on the roster. He doesn’t have the best chin and often throws caution to the wind defensively (which is a bad combination), but he has plenty of positive attributes to his game.
Standing 6’1 with a 74.5 inch reach, Erosa has a nice variety of strikes in his arsenal and is good at capitalizing on openings. I bet him against a more compact striker with static head movement in Nate Landwehr last year and I think this is a similar dynamic (albeit the price is much worse).
Steven Peterson has serviceable boxing, but he is too slow, unathletic and hittable to be able to compete with top featherweights.
He was getting pieced up by Martin Bravo before landing a lucky spinning backfist KO, which saved his career.
Perhaps Peterson will look for takedowns and try to catch kicks in order to get Erosa to the mat, but that doesn’t feel like a viable path to victory. Erosa is not an easy guy to lie on top of and you risk getting your neck snatched up if you’re uncareful with your shots.
There is no value at -300, but Julian Erosa is the pick.
Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle
I think Tresean Gore has a lot of potential. He is a plus athlete with natural power, trains at a reputable camp and has an excellent back story that will endear him to the fans.
Gore has a sharp jab, clean left hook and devastating low kicks (much like his training partner, Douglas Lima). I’d like to see him throw in combination a bit more, but he is able to stop opponents dead in their tracks with single shots.
From what I’ve seen, I don’t think Gore is going to be an easy guy to take down either.
Conversely, Bryan Battle is not the most gifted athlete and his best attribute is his toughness.
We saw him get lit up by Gilbert Urbina in his last fight before digging deep and finding the submission in the second round. I assume he’ll try to weather an early storm again, but I don’t like his chances of rallying from behind against a much more dangerous opponent.
There are some questions over how Gore fights moving backwards and how he holds up in the clinch, but Battle will have to sustain heavy damage if he wants to close the distance and impose his will.
I liked Tresean Gore around the -135 mark. The line is less appealing at -165.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris
Kazakhstan’s Shavkat Rakhmonov is an exciting prospect. With a background in sambo, he has a well-rounded skill set and should be making improvements from camp to camp training at Sanford MMA.
In open space, I believe he will have a significant advantage. He has a good understanding of distance, throws clean straight punches as well as hard leg kicks.
His offensive grappling looks solid, but I’m not completely sure about his takedown defense, bottom game or cardio.
We saw some defensive grappling in his 2016 fight against Jun Yong Park and it wasn’t pretty, although he’s had plenty of time to make improvements.
He gave up double underhooks to Alex Oliveira in his UFC debut, which could get him into trouble here. He also has a tendency to jump for guillotines instead of defend takedowns, which you can’t get away with at the top level.
Carlston Harris is janky and awkward on the feet. He throws with heat, but his technique is ugly and his punches come at wide angles.
Harris understands his path to victory and is reliable to grapple proactively. He has a great body lock takedown and will stick to opponents like a bad rash.
Like his opponent, Harris is dangerous with neck attacks and we haven’t seen the Kazakhstani fighter deal with a tenacious grappler like this before.
It’s a bit speculative, but I can’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Carlston Harris at +200.
Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov
A State champion wrestler and brown belt judoka, Hawaii’s Punahele Soriano is a physical specimen.
Despite his grappling accolades, he prefers to load up with huge left hands and try to detach opponents from their consciousness. He has been successful more often than not, but his crude striking style will need refinements if he wants to hang at the elite level.
Furthermore, when you swing for the fences and don’t connect – you’re likely to slow down and lose decisions. We saw this happen against Brendan Allen in his last fight.
While the Hawaiian is clearly capable of landing explosive takedowns, it’s his defensible grappling that will be tested this weekend.
He looked competent in brief scrambles against Oskar Piechota and his wrestling accolades make me think his first layer takedown defense will be okay, but this isn’t going to be a college wrestling match.
Nick Maximov doesn’t have the best takedown entries, but he blends his wrestling and his BJJ together well and is always on the hunt for a dominant position.
A pupil of the Nick Diaz Academy, Maximov will shoot takedowns tenaciously and is crafty enough to turn an entanglement into a back take.
While Maximov is raw on the feet, he is still only 24-years-of-age and has plenty of potential for improvement. It sounds like he has been sparring with plenty of professional boxers and that should serve him well against an opponent who is simply looking to headhunt with his left hand.
I think there is some value on Nick Maximov at +160.
Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
Sean Strickland looks like a goon, talks like a goon and fights like a goon. I’m certainly a fan.
“Tarzan” is an intimidating presence in the octagon, as he refuses to take a backward step while battering opponents with jabs and 1-2 combinations.
He stands very upright and has some defensive vulnerabilities, but I don’t think they’ll cost him against Jack Hermansson – whose path to victory is on the mat.
This fight will most likely be determined by Strickland’s takedown defense. Going back to 2017, he stuffed takedowns and showed excellent balance against Court McGee – but that was at welterweight.
Strickland looks strong in the clinch and I’ve heard his training partners speak about how skilled he is on the mat (even though we never see his ground game inside the octagon).
Hermansson has a good jab and calf kick, but he is not a comfortable striker. He enjoys being punched in the face about as much as I enjoy working in an open-plan office.
As you’d expect from a fighter with a Greco-Roman base, Hermansson is effective with body locks and trips – but he also has good lower body takedowns and can hit reactive shots when his opponents get reckless.
Hermansson’s ground and pound is the best aspect of his game and will brutalize opponents if he can secure a dominant position. However, my inclination is that he’s going to get stuck on the feet in a striking fight that he can’t handle.
I’m not sure how much value there is at -210, but Sean Strickland is a pretty confident pick.