I got spanked by the bookies last week. I’m profitable for the year, but the last few months have been punishing.

It is what it is. All I can do is stay diligent with my tape studying and wait for my luck to change.

Please enjoy my UFC Fight Night predictions.

Stephanie Egger vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

A decorated judoka, Stephanie Egger was sitting at +140 last week and has been bet down to a favorite.

I understand the angle people are seeing. While Egger’s striking is stiff and robotic, the Swiss fighter has slick trips and throws from the clinch and is a savvy top position grappler.

Mayra Bueno Silva has a brown belt in BJJ and is an active guard player, but her takedown defense sucks and she is too comfortable letting the clock burn while fishing for submissions off her back.

If the fight hits the mat with Egger on top, I could see her winning rounds by laying in the Brazilian’s guard.

On the feet, Silva has a massive advantage. She is defensively void, but has plenty of offensive firepower with all eight limbs.

Her recent padwork videos show a lot of body work and I think ripping the body would be a great idea against a judoka who will be looking to tie up with her.

Silva would be wise to avoid the clinch if possible and fire hard knees and elbows when she does get grabbed. The Thai clinch of Silva versus the judo takedowns of Egger will be one of the most interesting aspects of this contest.

I’ll pick Mayra Bueno Silva to win the fight, but I’d need a better price than +110 in order to bet her straight.

Priscilla Cachoeira vs. Ariane Lipski

“Zombie Girl” is an appropriate nickname for Priscilla Cachoeira, who marches forward with reckless abandon and tries to land huge overhands and crushing elbows on her adversaries.

While we saw some semblance of head movement and distance management in her last fight, Cachoeria is a brawler through and through.

While she lost her first three bouts in the UFC, her recent results have been better. That said, Gina Mazany and Shana Dobson are not UFC level combatants and her win against Yi Jeon Kim was a blatant robbery.

For obvious reasons, the UFC wants to keep Ariane Lipski in the win column and I think this is a good fight for her stylistically.

Lipski is the more sophisticated striker with faster hands, straighter punches and the superior shot selection. She should also be able to handle herself in the clinch if Cachoeira starts throwing elbows (unlike Kim, who is predominantly a boxer).

While Lipski had issues with her defensive grappling in the past, she should have an advantage on the mat and it wouldn’t be out of the question for her to shoot takedowns.

This is lower level women’s MMA and anything can happen, but Ariane Lipski has all the skills to put on a clinic.

Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal

Vicente Luque is rarely in a boring fight. The Brazilian storms forward with his high guard, unloading heavy power shots and low kicks.

While he is not known as a methodical grappler, he can certainly capitalize with a tight front choke if you leave your neck in the wrong place.

As exciting as Luque is, he has some flaws. He is supremely hittable, can struggle against opponents with superior footwork and is a bit of a turtle if you put him flat on his back.

Luque does his best work when opponents are standing right in front of him and I think he’ll be looking for big hooks and body kicks as Geoff Neal moves laterally.

Fighting from the southpaw stance, Neal is a great athlete with solid striking fundamentals. I think he’ll have success with his left body kick, left cross and right hook around the guard of the Brazilian.

He has to be careful of low kicks though, especially when Luque switches to southpaw.

In Neal’s last fight, you can hear coach Sayif Saud imploring him to put out volume, avoid standing in front of his opponent and avoid a slug fest. I think we’ll see a similar game plan here, with the possible inclusion of takedowns.

Neal generally prefers to wrestle defensively, but he may decide to mix in some takedowns to keep Luque guessing. We saw Belal Muhammad have success with this approach and Neal is capable of doing the same thing.

Ultimately, I believe this will be a super close fight and I see value on Geoff Neal at +150 and upwards.

Jamahal Hill vs. Thiago Santos

I’ve been impressed by Jamahal Hill and I think we’ll see him contend for the title in the near future. Aside from his absurd loss to Paul Craig, Hill has looked devastating inside the octagon.

An athletic southpaw, Hill’s left hand is like a piston and he mixes up his offense to the body excellently.

Thiago Santos is a dangerous striker himself, but has looked worse for wear in recent fights and lacks a bit of finesse with his boxing.

At 38-years-of-age, I doubt we’re going to see any new wrinkles to his game.

The Brazilian fights well from both stances and has a ferocious array of kicks in his arsenal. His hands are dangerous too, although he is pretty wild and throws a lot of looping shots.

We haven’t seen Santos get an explosive knockout since 2019 and I don’t think this is a favorable opponent for him.

I see Jamahal Hill working his way into punching range and slowly picking his adversary apart. I believe the heavy price tag is justified.